“The grounding of aircraft during the pandemic means the baseline will be far lower than envisaged, and the carbon targets much more challenging, if CORSIA goes ahead without changes,” the report stated. Collectively, the carbon offset programme needs to raise up to USD 22.39 billion annually from airlines, according to an April 2020 report from the London-based environmental group Green Alliance.
IATA indicated that some of its member nations might have to pull out of the programme if costs are too high. “The existing CORSIA rules provide flexibility to governments to address suppressed activity in 2020, without any need to renegotiate the measure in a drawn out political discussion,” EDF International counsel, Annie Petsonk, said in March 2020, when the organisation published a coronavirus and CORSIA analysis. EDF found that the amount of credits that would be available for airlines to use would still be 2.5 to 3.5 times the amount the airlines need for the first three years of the programme, Petsonk added. “These credits would be in addition to any reductions that may be available as airlines begin to shift to sustainable aviation fuels,” she said.